# Table A4: Sector Decomposition of Demographic Investment

*Does demographic investment effort concentrate in services or manufacturing?*

## Model Summary

| Model | Dep Var | Sample | N | Countries | R² | ρ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Full) | manuf_va_gdp | — | 3913 | 160 | 0.046 | 0.971 |
| A: Services VA (% GDP) (Full) | services_va_gdp | — | 4138 | 164 | 0.303 | 0.960 |
| A: Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | industry_va_gdp | — | 4172 | 164 | 0.219 | 0.973 |
| A: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Full) | agric_va_gdp | — | 4207 | 164 | 0.685 | 0.941 |
| A: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | nonmanuf_industry_va_gdp | — | 3887 | 160 | 0.276 | 0.967 |
| A: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Full) | capital_intensity | — | 3917 | 150 | 0.110 | 0.864 |
| B: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (OECD) | manuf_va_gdp | — | 1047 | 37 | 0.003 | 0.990 |
| B: Services VA (% GDP) (OECD) | services_va_gdp | — | 1047 | 37 | 0.029 | 0.982 |
| B: Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | industry_va_gdp | — | 1047 | 37 | -0.172 | 0.982 |
| B: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (OECD) | agric_va_gdp | — | 1047 | 37 | 0.518 | 0.942 |
| B: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | nonmanuf_industry_va_gdp | — | 1047 | 37 | -0.203 | 0.984 |
| B: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (OECD) | capital_intensity | — | 1153 | 37 | 0.274 | 0.885 |
| C: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | manuf_va_gdp | — | 2866 | 123 | 0.002 | 0.967 |
| C: Services VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | services_va_gdp | — | 3091 | 127 | 0.162 | 0.958 |
| C: Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | industry_va_gdp | — | 3125 | 127 | 0.237 | 0.972 |
| C: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | agric_va_gdp | — | 3160 | 127 | 0.611 | 0.942 |
| C: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | nonmanuf_industry_va_gdp | — | 2840 | 123 | 0.287 | 0.965 |
| C: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Non-OECD) | capital_intensity | — | 2764 | 113 | 0.108 | 0.863 |
| D: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (OADR) | manuf_va_gdp | — | 3913 | 160 | 0.031 | 0.971 |
| D: Services VA (% GDP) (OADR) | services_va_gdp | — | 4138 | 164 | 0.309 | 0.961 |
| D: Industry VA (% GDP) (OADR) | industry_va_gdp | — | 4172 | 164 | 0.230 | 0.972 |
| D: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (OADR) | agric_va_gdp | — | 4207 | 164 | 0.682 | 0.942 |
| D: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (OADR) | nonmanuf_industry_va_gdp | — | 3887 | 160 | 0.235 | 0.968 |

## Key Coefficients (Z₁, Z₂, Z₃)

| Model | Variable | Coef | SE | p-value | Sig |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_1 | -9.6766 | 6.8937 | 0.1605 |  |
| A: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_2 | 1.5718 | 1.0385 | 0.1302 |  |
| A: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_3 | -0.0636 | 0.0427 | 0.1362 |  |
| A: Services VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_1 | 32.3028 | 11.5504 | 0.0052 | *** |
| A: Services VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_2 | -3.4998 | 1.7371 | 0.0440 | ** |
| A: Services VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_3 | 0.1233 | 0.0712 | 0.0831 | * |
| A: Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_1 | 16.3259 | 10.8314 | 0.1318 |  |
| A: Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_2 | -2.2408 | 1.6332 | 0.1701 |  |
| A: Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_3 | 0.0680 | 0.0671 | 0.3112 |  |
| A: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_1 | -49.6299 | 7.3796 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_2 | 5.8759 | 1.1108 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_3 | -0.2003 | 0.0455 | 0.0000 | *** |
| A: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_1 | 12.9426 | 10.3434 | 0.2109 |  |
| A: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_2 | -1.7246 | 1.5526 | 0.2667 |  |
| A: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Full) | Z_3 | 0.0431 | 0.0636 | 0.4975 |  |
| A: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Full) | Z_1 | 39.2379 | 13.7585 | 0.0044 | *** |
| A: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Full) | Z_2 | -4.3562 | 2.0594 | 0.0345 | ** |
| A: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Full) | Z_3 | 0.1334 | 0.0838 | 0.1117 |  |
| B: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_1 | 10.5247 | 14.5270 | 0.4689 |  |
| B: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_2 | -1.1945 | 1.9961 | 0.5497 |  |
| B: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0353 | 0.0768 | 0.6462 |  |
| B: Services VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_1 | -3.2299 | 17.3118 | 0.8520 |  |
| B: Services VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_2 | -0.1496 | 2.3765 | 0.9498 |  |
| B: Services VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0352 | 0.0912 | 0.7001 |  |
| B: Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_1 | 36.0002 | 18.2882 | 0.0493 | ** |
| B: Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_2 | -3.6793 | 2.5106 | 0.1431 |  |
| B: Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0943 | 0.0964 | 0.3280 |  |
| B: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_1 | -10.9435 | 7.1828 | 0.1279 |  |
| B: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_2 | 0.9887 | 0.9831 | 0.3148 |  |
| B: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_3 | -0.0290 | 0.0375 | 0.4398 |  |
| B: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_1 | 28.0141 | 14.8822 | 0.0601 | * |
| B: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_2 | -2.9627 | 2.0436 | 0.1474 |  |
| B: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0808 | 0.0785 | 0.3033 |  |
| B: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (OECD) | Z_1 | 39.0009 | 22.9857 | 0.0900 | * |
| B: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (OECD) | Z_2 | -3.3533 | 3.1346 | 0.2849 |  |
| B: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0689 | 0.1191 | 0.5633 |  |
| C: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | -11.7527 | 8.2054 | 0.1522 |  |
| C: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | 1.8930 | 1.2578 | 0.1324 |  |
| C: Manufacturing VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | -0.0794 | 0.0526 | 0.1312 |  |
| C: Services VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | 25.4544 | 14.1862 | 0.0729 | * |
| C: Services VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | -2.1985 | 2.1701 | 0.3111 |  |
| C: Services VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0598 | 0.0904 | 0.5085 |  |
| C: Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | 19.6507 | 13.2476 | 0.1381 |  |
| C: Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | -2.8573 | 2.0305 | 0.1595 |  |
| C: Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0970 | 0.0848 | 0.2528 |  |
| C: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | -48.4419 | 9.2138 | 0.0000 | *** |
| C: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | 5.6382 | 1.4123 | 0.0001 | *** |
| C: Agriculture VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | -0.1873 | 0.0589 | 0.0015 | *** |
| C: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | 13.7308 | 12.9036 | 0.2874 |  |
| C: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | -1.8675 | 1.9713 | 0.3435 |  |
| C: Non-Manuf Industry VA (% GDP) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | 0.0514 | 0.0821 | 0.5317 |  |
| C: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Non-OECD) | Z_1 | 43.6582 | 17.6617 | 0.0135 | ** |
| C: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Non-OECD) | Z_2 | -5.0293 | 2.7104 | 0.0636 | * |
| C: Investment/GDP (I/Y) (Non-OECD) | Z_3 | 0.1598 | 0.1128 | 0.1565 |  |

*Controls: fiscal_bal_gdp, nfa_gdp_lag, rgdp_growth, log_rel_opw, kaopen*
*PanelGLS with AR(1) correction.*
*Sector VA data: World Bank WDI (NV.IND.MANF.ZS, NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS, NV.IND.TOTL.ZS, NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS).*